TWO AMERICAS, ONE BET
By: Angel Antonio
There are two Americas, and the data show them drifting apart.
In one, wealth grows with the stock market. In the other, people struggle with the basics. Pew found that 44% of Americans had trouble paying for a basic necessity in the past year, including 71% of lower-income adults. Among lower-income adults, 42% got food from a food bank, against 2% of upper-income adults. [1]
The midterms are on November 3. Both parties will talk about the economy. Few will talk about this gap. And the gap did not start yesterday. To understand it, start with a fracture most voters never see: where the work goes.
THE FIRST FRACTURE: WHERE THE WORK GOES
People are not the only ones on the move. Industries move too, and they follow a different logic.
Health care is the clear winner. It added 680,500 jobs between March 2025 and March 2026, a 2.9% rise, while manufacturing lost 75,000 jobs and information lost 76,000. [2] Hiring is concentrated in services tied to consumer demand and an aging population, [3] and one economist noted that recent gains came largely from lower-paying industries. The picture is not one-way: manufacturing has added about 72,000 jobs since its December 2025 low. [4]
Then there is the new boom: AI infrastructure. Where does it go? Not where people live. The largest cluster is in Loudoun County, Virginia, but the fastest growth is in Pecos, Texas, and rural Indiana. [5] The deciding factor is power. Northern Virginia’s utility says major transmission upgrades take three to seven years, which pushes new investment toward Indiana, Ohio and Georgia. Texas offers a lightly regulated grid, and Pennsylvania pitches its nuclear plants and old industrial sites that already have power hookups. [5] States from Arizona to Virginia also exempt data center equipment from sales taxes. [6]
So capital follows power, land and permits. People follow housing. The two do not always meet. The old industrial belt is a good example: some of its abandoned sites are now valued for their electrical connections. Whether that revival creates many jobs for local workers is something I could not confirm, and it is the right question to ask. The backlash is already here: lawmakers filed 452 data center bills in 46 states in 2025 and 2026. [7]
IT IS NOT NEW
I remember the images of Detroit in 2008. Empty factories, abandoned houses, a city that looked left behind. It seemed unreal to me. It was not an exception. It was a preview.
Then came the malls. Macy’s is closing up to 150 stores by the end of 2026. [8] In Pennsylvania, the Galleria at Pittsburgh Mills lost its Macy’s and now faces talk of demolition. [9] In Michigan, Lakeside Mall in Sterling Heights is being torn down. [10] In Indiana, Muncie Mall was announced to close and be demolished. [11]
To be fair, this is not a sudden collapse. Closures in the first half of 2026 ran more than 40% below the same period a year earlier, [12] and giants like Walmart, Target and Costco continue to perform. [13] E-commerce is one cause, not the only one. But every empty anchor store means lost jobs and a town that loses its center.
People vote with their feet. In the year to July 2025, California lost 229,000 residents to other states, and New York lost 138,000. [14] North Carolina gained 84,000, Texas 67,000 and South Carolina 66,600. [15] Not everything points south: Ohio went from losing residents in 2021 to gaining about 12,000 in 2025. [16] The main driver is housing, whose costs grow faster than wages in coastal metros. [17] Remote work removed the commute that justified those costs, [18] and jobs and family also weigh heavily. [19]
But moving costs money. I suspect, though this needs checking against Census data by income, that those who cannot afford to move are the ones stuck in the second America.
THE AMERICA THAT OWNS
The Federal Reserve’s distributional accounts show the bottom half of households holding about 2.5% of the nation’s net worth, [20] and about 1.1% of corporate stocks and mutual fund shares. [21] When the market rises, most of the gain goes to the top half. Incomes tell a similar story: they grew faster for higher-income families, while lower earners saw a rise of only about 1.5%. [22]
THE AMERICA THAT STRUGGLES
Brookings estimates that nearly half of U.S. households cannot make ends meet, in blue and red states alike. [23] Real wages for the bottom half remain below the pre-pandemic trend. [24]
“But unemployment is low,” some will say. It is: 4.2% in September. [25] Yet hiring has nearly stalled. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, and the three-month average is about 51,000 a month. [26] Wage growth is the slowest since May 2021, underemployment is 7.7%, and 1.9 million people have been out of work for more than six months. [27] A low unemployment rate does not mean the paycheck covers the bills. The next jobs report comes on November 6, three days after the election. [28]
There is a counterpoint. According to PNC, the gap in spending growth between richer and poorer households narrowed to 0.1 points in July, from about 5 points a year earlier, thanks to a better labor market. [29] The numbers improve. The feeling has not.
HISPANIC AMERICA
Any story about two Americas has to include Hispanics, because they are in both.
They keep the economy running. The Hispanic labor force reached a record 34.9 million. [30] Hispanic unemployment was 4.7% in September, down from 5.5% a year earlier. [31] But Latinos are about 20% of the workforce and 27% of low-wage workers, according to think-tank figures. [32] And the hardship is visible: 33% of Hispanic adults got food from a food bank in the past year, against 14% of White adults. [33]
Immigration enforcement adds another layer. The detained population in ICE custody rose nearly 75% in 2025, to more than 68,000 on any given day, and arrests shifted from jail transfers to neighborhoods and workplaces. [34] The economic effects show up on farms. The California Farm Bureau reported that enforcement operations kept some farmworkers from showing up, nearly halting the citrus harvest at its peak. Monterey County estimates its Salinas Valley needs up to 55,000 migrant workers at harvest. [35]
Can Hispanic workers still send money home? Yes, and that is the surprise. Mexico received $41.8 billion in remittances from January to August, up 2.2%, after 2025 brought the first annual drop in more than a decade. [36] But the number of transfers fell 2.2%, while the average amount rose 4.5% to $409. [37] Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador received $29.06 billion through July, up 7.1%, [38] a sharp slowdown for Guatemala, which grew 18.7% in 2025 and is projected to grow 7% in 2026. [39]
Fewer, larger transfers. I read that as a hypothesis, not a fact: fewer senders, or families sending bigger lumps because of enforcement fears and a 1% federal tax on certain transfers. [40] I found no data showing that poverty among U.S. workers is what holds remittances back. What the numbers do show is how much depends on them: remittances equal roughly 19% to 20% of Guatemala’s GDP, [38] and almost 4% of Mexico’s. [41] When a worker in Houston or Salinas tightens their belt, a family in Huehuetenango or Michoacán feels it.
THE BET
The prosperous America rests on a bet: that the AI boom keeps going.
BlackRock’s CEO warned that a national pause in data center construction could lead to a recession. [42] Nonresidential construction is on track to fall in 2026 for the first time since 2010, excluding 2021, with data centers masking the weakness. Local opposition over energy, water and land is already a factor in this year’s elections. [43] Gartner estimates that the revenue these data centers can generate by 2030 is less than half of what the announced spending requires. [44]
Not everyone agrees. Some analysts argue that a moratorium would hardly cause a recession, because capital would move to friendlier places. [45] And AI investment is estimated at roughly 1.5% to 1.9% of GDP. [46] This is a risk, not a forecast. But here is the point: if the top of the K rests on a bet, the bottom of the K has the least cushion to absorb its failure.
THE MIRROR
Look at France. On October 17, hundreds of thousands marched over the cost of living, and the day ended in fires and looting. [47] About 1,200 people were arrested and 150 police officers were injured. [48] Several cities imposed curfews, and rising fuel prices were among the causes. [49] France is not America. But it shows what happens when a country’s second half runs out of patience.
A WAY FORWARD
Describing two Americas is the easy part. The harder part is saying what should come next.
I have no party to sell. I have four convictions: liberal democracy, the freedom to work and build a business, security and prosperity that respect human rights, and a social safety net financed efficiently by the public and private sectors together. From those convictions, this is the path I see.
First, match growth to people, not only to power lines. We saw that capital goes where there is electricity and land, while people go where housing is cheaper. Public incentives should bridge that gap. A state that gives tax breaks to a data center should ask for something in return: local hiring, training programs with community colleges, and a fair share of the grid costs. If residents give up revenue, they should see jobs, not only higher power demand.
Second, build where people want to live. Housing is the thread running through migration, stalled mobility and the squeeze on lower-income families. More supply and faster permits would help every region. And America has a ready-made resource: its empty malls and abandoned industrial sites. Turning them into housing, clinics and small businesses is better than waiting for demolition crews.
Third, do not bet the whole economy on one sector. A prosperous America should not depend on whether AI spending keeps rising. Health care, skilled trades, energy and advanced manufacturing can carry weight too. And workers should be owners, not only wage earners. When the bottom half of the country holds about 1% of the stock market, a rising market is not a shared success. Savings accounts that follow the worker from job to job, with an employer or public match, would be a practical start.
Fourth, build a safety net that rewards work and is measured by results. Not a bigger bureaucracy, and not a smaller one for its own sake. A public floor, private and community delivery, and honest tracking of what works. Food banks should be an emergency, not permanent infrastructure.
Fifth, treat Hispanic workers and the hemisphere as an asset, not a problem. Secure borders and orderly legal pathways are not opposites. A country that needs hands on its farms, building sites and care homes should say so in law, not leave it to chance and raids. And the other side of the border matters too. Cheaper, formal remittance channels, and incentives to send money toward savings, housing and small businesses at home, would turn a lifeline into an engine. Closer trade and investment ties across the Americas would make emigrating a choice, not the only option.
None of this belongs to one party. Each piece can be defended from the left or from the right. The test is whether anyone will do it before the next shock, and the shock may be the bet failing.
At GELAN, we will keep following three numbers: hiring, remittances and AI investment. They tell us which America is holding up.
FOUR QUESTIONS FOR ANY CANDIDATE
Whatever your party, ask:
What will you do about housing costs, the reason so many families leave their states or stay stuck in place?
If the AI investment boom slows, what is your plan for the workers who will feel it first?
What will you do so that a 4.2% unemployment rate means jobs that pay the bills?
What is your plan for the people who pick, build and care, and for the families abroad who depend on what they send home?
Two Americas can share a flag for a long time. The question is which one pays if the bet fails.
SOURCES
[1] Pew Research Center, “Many Americans Are Struggling to Afford Basic Necessities,” Oct 14, 2026. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/14/many-americans-are-struggling-to-afford-basic-necessities/
[2] BLS, “Health care and social assistance employment increased by 2.9 percent,” 2026. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/health-care-and-social-assistance-employment-increased-by-2-9-percent-or-680500-from-march-2025-to-march-2026.htm
[3] Newsweek, jobs report chart (May 2026). https://www.newsweek.com/jobs-report-may-2026-chart-winning-losing-industries-12037753
[4] Wichita Liberty, September 2026 jobs report. https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/september-2026-jobs-report/
[5] The Washington Times, “Where America’s data centers are actually being built, and why,” Sept 29, 2026. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/29/americas-data-centers-actually-built/
[6] DataCenterScope, data center tax incentives by state, 2026. https://datacenterscope.com/costs/data-center-tax-incentives-by-state/
[7] StartBusinessByState, “Data Center Boom by State (2026).” https://startbusinessbystate.com/data-center-boom-by-state/
[8] Newsweek, list of stores closing in April. https://newsweek.com/list-stores-closing-april-2-11724357
[9] My Philly Alive, Pennsylvania mall closures 2025-2026. https://www.myphillyalive.com/blog/mall-shakeup-list-of-stores-closing-in-pennsylvania-malls-in-2025-2026/
[10] My Philly Alive, Michigan mall closures 2026. https://www.myphillyalive.com/blog/mall-shakeup-list-of-stores-closing-in-michigan-malls-in-2026/
[11] Wikipedia, Muncie Mall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muncie_Mall
[12] Newsweek, stores closing this fall. https://www.newsweek.com/list-of-stores-closing-this-fall-12513835
[13] WebProNews, “The Great American Store Collapse of 2026.” https://www.webpronews.com/the-great-american-store-collapse-of-2026-thousands-of-locations-going-dark-as-retails-reckoning-accelerates/
[14] Visual Capitalist, “The States Americans Are Fleeing—and Moving To.” https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-the-states-americans-are-fleeing-and-moving-to/
[15] ResiClub Analytics, net domestic migration 2025. https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/net-domestic-migration-which-states-are-gaining-and-losing-americans-2025
[16] MoveAdvisor, “Is the Sun Belt Boom Over?” https://moveadvisor.com/move/is-the-sun-belt-boom-over-where-will-americans-move-next/
[17] Real Estate and Relocation, “The Migration Landscape of 2026.” https://realestateandrelocation.com/the-migration-landscape-of-2026/
[18] Scott Kompa, “Why Are People Leaving New Jersey in 2026?” https://www.scottkompa.com/blog/why-people-leaving-new-jersey-2026/
[19] World Population Review, “States People Are Leaving 2026.” https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/states-people-are-leaving
[20] Federal Reserve (FRED), Share of Net Worth Held by the Bottom 50%, Distributional Financial Accounts. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSB50215
[21] Federal Reserve (FRED), Share of Corporate Equities and Mutual Fund Shares Held by the Bottom 50%. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSB50203
[22] NPR, “It’s not just inflation. Wages are falling behind too,” May 28, 2026. https://www.npr.org/2026/05/28/nx-s1-5836525/affordability-report-brookings-inflation-wages
[23] U.S. News, “Nearly Half of U.S. Households Can’t Make Ends Meet,” Jun 4, 2026. https://www.usnews.com/news/u-s-news-decision-points/articles/2026-06-04/nearly-half-of-u-s-households-cant-make-ends-meet
[24] Federal Reserve Communities, 2026 Worker Perspectives Report. https://fedcommunities.org/research/2026-report-when-every-dollar-counts/
[25] BLS, Employment Situation, September 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf?stream=top
[26] Wichita Liberty, September 2026 jobs report. https://wichitaliberty.org/economics/september-2026-jobs-report
[27] The Trading Tools, daily brief, Oct 2, 2026. https://www.thetrading.tools/daily-brief/2026-10-02
[28] BLS, Employment Situation release archive, Oct 2, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm
[29] Axios, “Spending narrows between lower- and higher-income Americans,” Aug 11, 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/08/11/spending-growth-income
[30] Latin Times, “Labor Day 2026: 35M Latino Workers Power the U.S. Economy.” https://www.latintimes.com/labor-day-2026-35m-latino-workers-power-us-economy-millions-more-vanish-it-599051
[31] BLS, Employment Situation, Sept. 2026 (Hispanic or Latino ethnicity). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
[32] The Fulcrum, “Latino Workers Are the Backbone of America.” https://thefulcrum.us/economy/labor-day-2026-latino-workforce-economic-impact
[33] Pew Research Center, “1 in 5 Americans say they got food from a food bank in the past year,” 2026. https://www.pewresearch.org/?p=576757
[34] medRxiv, “Visible Immigration Enforcement Arrests and Mental Health Among Hispanic Adults,” 2026. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.02.26357125.full.pdf
[35] Latin Times, “September Jobs Report: Latino Workers Absorbed The Blow.” https://www.latintimes.com/september-jobs-report-latino-workers-absorbed-blow-no-ones-talking-about-599935
[36] Crónica (Banxico data), Oct 1, 2026. https://www.cronica.com.mx/nacional/2026/10/01/remesas-aumentan-22-entre-enero-y-agosto-de-2026/
[37] Infobae/EFE, Oct 1, 2026. https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/10/01/remesas-a-mexico-crecen-un-22-en-los-primeros-ocho-meses-de-2026/
[38] Infobae, Triángulo Norte remittances, Sept 20, 2026. https://www.infobae.com/el-salvador/2026/09/20/el-salvador-honduras-y-guatemala-reciben-usd-29064-millones-en-remesas-hasta-julio-y-marca-un-alza-de-71/
[39] La Hora (Guatemala), Sept 21, 2026. https://lahora.gt/lh-economia/esmith/2026/09/21/remesas-entrarian-en-un-freno-historico-analisis-preve-menor-crecimiento-en-2026-y-estancamiento-en-2027/
[40] Primicias, “Aumento de remesas en 2026.” https://www.primicias.ec/revistagestion/analisis/umento-remesas-trump-logrado-frenar-ecuador-eeuu-132143/
[41] Latinus, Banxico first-half 2026 remittances. https://latinus.us/economia/2026/8/3/remesas-en-mexico-repuntan-un-31-interanual-durante-el-primer-semestre-de-2026-banxico-180606.html
[42] Data Center Dynamics, “Pause in US data center construction could lead to recession, BlackRock CEO warns.” https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/pause-in-us-data-center-construction-could-lead-to-recession-blackrock-ceo-warns/
[43] Risk & Insurance, “US Commercial Construction Growth Slows as A.I. Data Centers Drive Market.” https://riskandinsurance.com/us-commercial-construction-growth-slows-as-a-i-data-centers-drive-market/
[44] Fierce Network, “Gartner warns AI data center capex is ‘unsustainable’.” https://www.fierce-network.com/cloud/gartner-warns-ai-data-center-capex-unsustainable-35t-write-down-risk-looms
[45] Seeking Alpha, “The Data Center Doomsday Scenario.” https://seekingalpha.com/article/4955024-the-data-center-doomsday-scenario
[46] Luminix, “When Will the AI Bubble Burst? The 2026 Evidence.” https://www.useluminix.com/reports/industry-analysis/when-will-the-ai-bubble-burst
[47] Al Jazeera, “Protests across France spiral into looting, blazes and clashes,” Oct 18, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/10/18/photos-protests-across-france-spiral-into-looting-blazes-and-clashes
[48] CNN, half a million protesters sweep France, Oct 17, 2026. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/17/europe/half-million-protesters-sweep-france-in-youth-unrest-latam-intl
[49] CNN, “France protests: Why the weekend became one of the most violent in years,” Oct 19, 2026. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/19/europe/france-protests-violence-wwk-intl-hnk
